Enn of örlátt, segja Bretar

Álit breskra aðila á einkunn Moody's fyrir íslensku bankana þrjá, skv. www.bloomberg.com er enn þetta:

Ennþá röng einkunn, bara ekki eins röng og Aaa var. Matið á bönkunum var gagnslaust, en nú er hægt að nota það, þó að það sé full- örlátt. Gjaldhæfisafleiður (e. Credit Default Swaps) sýna raunverulegt mat markaðarins. Kostnaður við þær eru allt að sjö sinnum hærri hjá íslenskum banka heldur en öðrum sem hafa haft Aaa flokkun í tíu ár, sem sýnir áhættumat markaðarins.

Þessir þrír íslensku bankar eru nokkuð hátt á áhættukúrvunni, en hafa notið skjóls af íslenska ríkinu. Þeim ber að vera metnir á eigin styrk, ekki ríkisins.

 

Grein Bloomberg fylgir hér:

 

Moody's Cuts ABN, Fortis, 42 Other Bank Ratings After Protests

By John Glover

April 11 (Bloomberg) -- Moody's Investors Service cut the credit ratings of 44 banks, including units of ABN Amro Holding NV, ING Groep NV and Fortis, as it seeks to calm protests over a new system for assessing financial institutions.

The downgrades, announced late yesterday in New York, were made about six weeks after Moody's raised 150 banks it said could count on government support in a financial crisis. The new system provoked a furor when Iceland's three largest banks were given the same rating as the U.S. Treasury and Exxon Mobil Corp.

``It's a step in the right direction,'' said Tom Jenkins, an analyst at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London, in an interview before the revised ratings were published. ``But it's going to be some time before Moody's credibility in terms of bank ratings is fully restored.''

Icelandic lenders Kaupthing hf, Glitnir Banki hf and Landsbanki Islands hf, had some of the biggest ratings cuts, dropping three levels to Aa3. Three steps was the largest downgrade Moody's said it was considering for the banks it placed under review earlier this month.

OTP Bank Nyrt., a Budapest-based bank that's eastern Europe's largest lender by assets, was also cut, to Aa3 from Aa1. In February, Moody's raised its A1 local bank deposit rating three steps to Aa1, justifying the ranking by saying some governments are willing to pay off bank debt before sovereign obligations to prevent a banking crisis.

Analysts' Opinions

Moody's on March 16 pledged to ``refine'' its so-called joint-default analysis, giving more weight to analysts' opinions.

``A number of bank ratings that were upgraded prior to the refinement were identified as being inconsistent with the refined methodology,'' Moody's said in a statement yesterday.

ABN Amro Bank NV was slashed to Aa2 from Aa1, and ING Bank was cut to Aa1 from Aaa. Fortis Bank was reduced to Aa2 from Aaa.

``Moody's has backtracked to some extent but it doesn't want to lose face completely by putting them all back to where they were,'' said Simon Adamson, an analyst at CreditSights Inc. in London, in an interview yesterday. ``The ratings for the Icelandic banks are still wrong, just not as wrong as with an Aaa.''

Adamson, who on March 4 called the new ratings ``worthless'' and ditched Moody's, said he expected the revised grades to be ``comparable'' with those of Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings.

The revised ratings are ``still generous but they don't look as bizarre as they did,'' he said. ``We'll probably be able to use them again.''

Top Ratings

Investors haven't treated the Aaa ratings of the Icelandic banks as being on a par with the top ratings other lenders may have held for years.

The cost of protecting 10 million euros ($13 million) of bonds sold by Kaupthing hf, Iceland's biggest lender, using five- year credit-default swaps is 54,000 euros a year. That compares with 7,500 euros a year to insure the bonds of Rabobank Nederland, which has held an Aaa rating from Moody's for more than a decade. Investors use credit-default swaps to bet on a company's ability to repay debt.

The following is a list of the banks whose ratings Moody's changed:

 

Ratings lowered by one level:

AB Volvofinans: to A3 from A2 (pre-JDA rating A3)

ABN AMRO Bank N.V.: to Aa2 from Aa1 (pre-JDA rating Aa3)

Bank Handlowy w Warszawie S.A.: to Aa3 from Aa2 (no pre-JDA local

     currency rating)

Budapest Bank Rt.: to A1 from Aa3 (no pre-JDA rating)

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce: to Aa2 from Aa1 (pre-JDA

     rating Aa3)*

Danske Bank AS: to Aa1 from Aaa (pre-JDA rating Aa1)

Dexia Bank Belgium: to Aa1 from Aaa (pre-JDA rating Aa2)

Dexia Banque Internationale a Luxembourg: to Aa1 from Aaa (pre-

     JDA rating Aa2)**

Dexia Credit Local: to Aa1 from Aaa (pre-JDA rating Aa2)**

DNB NOR Bank ASA: to Aa1 from Aaa (pre-JDA rating Aa3)

FIH Erhvervsbank AS: to A1 from Aa3 (pre-JDA rating A1)**

Fokus Bank ASA: to Aa2 from Aa1 (pre-JDA rating Aa2)

ING Bank N.V.: to Aa1 from Aaa (pre-JDA rating Aa2)**

ING Bank Slaski S.A.: to A1 from Aa3 (no pre-JDA local currency

     rating)

Jyske Bank AS: to Aa2 from Aa1 (pre-JDA rating A1)

National Bank of Canada: to Aa2 from Aa1 (pre-JDA rating A1)*

Nordea Bank AB: to Aa1 from Aaa (pre-JDA rating Aa3)**

Nordea Bank Danmark AS: to Aa1 from Aaa (pre-JDA rating Aa3)**

Nordea Bank Finland Plc: to Aa1 from Aaa (pre-JDA rating Aa3)

Nordea Bank Norge ASA: to Aa1 from Aaa (pre-JDA rating Aa3)

OKO Bank Plc: to Aa1 from Aaa (pre-JDA rating Aa2)

OTP Banka Slovensko AS. (OBS): to A2 from A1 (no pre-JDA local

     currency rating)

Sampo Bank Plc: to Aa1 from Aaa (pre-JDA rating Aa2)

SEB AB: to Aa2 from Aa1 (pre-JDA rating Aa3)

Sparebanken Midt-Norge: to Aa3 from Aa2 (pre-JDA rating A3)

Sparebanken Nord-Norge: to Aa3 from Aa2 (pre-JDA rating A3)

Sparebanken Rogaland: to Aa3 from Aa2 (pre-JDA rating A2)

Storebrand Bank: to A2 from A1 (pre-JDA rating Baa2)**

Sydbank A/S: to Aa3 from Aa2 (pre-JDA rating A2)**

Ratings lowered by two levels:

Aktia Savings Bank Plc: to A1 from Aa2 (pre-JDA rating A3)

Ceskoslovenska Obchodni Banka, AS: to Aa2 from Aaa (no pre-JDA

     local currency rating)

Fortis Bank Nederland (Holding) N.V.: to Aa2 from Aaa (pre-JDA

     rating Aa3)

Fortis Bank S.A./N.V.: to Aa2 from Aaa (pre-JDA rating Aa3)

Fortis Banque Luxembourg S.A.: to Aa2 from Aaa (pre-JDA rating

     Aa3)

KBC Bank N.V.: to Aa2 from Aaa (pre-JDA rating Aa3)

Kereskedelmi & Hitel Bank Rt.: to Aa3 from Aa1 (no pre-JDA local

     currency rating)

OTP Bank: to Aa3 from Aa1 (pre-JDA rating A1)

OTP Jelzalogbank Rt (OTP Mtge Bk): to Aa3 from Aa1 (no pre-JDA

     local currency rating)

Powszechna Kasa Oszczednosci Bank Polski S.A.: to Aa2 from Aaa

     (no pre-JDA local currency rating)

Sparebanken Oest: to A1 from Aa2 (pre-JDA rating A3)

Sparebanken Vest: to A1 from Aa2 (pre-JDA rating A3)

Ratings lowered by three levels:

Glitnir banki hf: to Aa3 from Aaa (pre-JDA rating A1)

Kaupthing Bank hf: to Aa3 from Aaa (pre-JDA rating A1)

Landsbanki Islands hf: to Aa3 from Aaa (pre-JDA rating A2)

The following banks' long-term debt and deposit ratings were

confirmed:

ING Belgium SA/NV: senior debt and deposits confirmed at Aa1(pre-

     JDA rating Aa2); junior securities upgraded

Parex Bank: senior debt and deposit ratings confirmed at Baa3

     (pre-JDA rating Ba1)

*senior debt and deposits were downgraded; junior securities

upgraded

**senior debt and deposits were downgraded; selected junior

securities confirmed

To contact the reporter on this story: John Glover in London at [e-mail]

Last Updated: April 10, 2007 19:04 EDT

 

Moody's lækkar lánshæfiseinkunn íslensku bankanna