Skuldir Íslendinga snarhækka

Hér eru nokkrir punktar og tenglar í öllum látum markaðanna: Fall fjárfestingalánabankanna í BNALehman Brothers IP snarstyrkti jenið gegn dollar og eykur þannig skuldir Íslendinga um hundruð milljarða króna á örskotsstundu. Skuldatryggingaálag bankanna snarhækkar (allt að 50% hærra!) og lausafjárskorturinn verður enn verri. Smærri svæðisbundnir bankar og sjóðir í Bandaríkjunum, allt að 1000 slíkir, gætu þurft að hætta starfsemi (skv. CNBC). Sparisjóðirnir á Íslandi heyra þá líklega sögunni til, enda eru fjármögnunarmöguleikar þeirra enn frekar takmarkaðir en áður.

Nú er skammt stórra högga á milli. Einhverjir íslenskir bankar og sparisjóðir munu nær örugglega þurfa að hætta glanssýningunni núna og fara yfir í Áætlun B: Sameiningar, niðurskurð, sölu eigna osfrv.

En aðalmál dagsins er áhættuflótti þeirra fáu fjárfesta sem eftir eru. Jenið styrkist og vaxtamunarsamningar eru gerðir upp. Skuldatryggingaafleiður CDS fara í hæstu hæðir.

Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest U.S. securities firm, is advising clients to sell emerging currencies in Asia, Latin America, Eastern Europe and the Middle East, and buy the dollar. Stock valuations suggest that earnings in emerging markets will drop as much as in 2001-2002, when profits fell 18 percent from their peak, New York-based Morgan Stanley estimated.   . The biggest losers since June in emerging markets have been the Iceland krona, Bulgarian lev and Brazilian real. Each has fallen more than 10 percent. Only China's yuan has appreciated, gaining 0.15 percent.    `There is going to be a further re-pricing of risk that will affect emerging markets. Credit was plentiful in the emerging market countries too.''

Lehman Brothers IP 2008 í New YorkTryggingarfélög, sérstaklega þau sem álpuðust út í skuldatryggingar, munu ekki eiga sjö dagana sæla. http://www.cnbc.com/id/26710104  AIG, Facing Liquidity Crunch, Reaches Out to Regulator   has made an unprecedented approach to the Federal Reserve seeking short-term financing, media reports said.

AIG, hit by $18 billion in losses over the past three quarters from guarantees it wrote on mortgage derivatives, has had to act quickly after Standard & Poor's said on Friday it may downgrade AIG's ratings.

AIG was founded in China 89 years ago. In the years since, largely under Greenberg's watch, it grew into one of the world's largest insurers, spanning 130 countries and territories and serving 74 million customers.

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPTIdpST8HJ0&refer=home Lehman Files for Biggest Bankruptcy as Suitors Balk (Update1)

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=atfoAL7co3vg&refer=home  Swinging Real, Won Point to More Pain Amid Slowdown (Update1)

http://www.cnbc.com/id/26710362 

CNBC Wilbur Ross: Possibly a Thousand Banks Will Close

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN1440161120080915  AIG, facing liquidity crisis, seeks Fed lifeline  “…has made an unprecedented approach to the Federal Reserve seeking $40 billion in short-term financing, the New York Times said.”

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN1445019920080915  Bank of America to buy Merrill for $50 billion 

Bank of America Corp said it agreed to buy Merrill Lynch & Co Inc in an all-stock deal worth $50 billion, snagging the world's largest retail brokerage after one of the worst-ever weekends on Wall Street.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1546989720080915    Lehman files for bankruptcy, plans to sell units. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc filed for bankruptcy protection, after trying to finance too many risky assets with too little capital, making it the largest and highest-profile casualty of the global credit crisis.

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a.uRJVhw91dU&refer=home  Treasuries Surge as Stocks Drop Worldwide on Lehman Bankruptcy. `In the short-term, this can only mean higher risk premiums and a flight to safety.''

http://www.cnbc.com/id/26715321  UBS Tumbles on Reports of Further Writedowns. UBS will have to write down another $5 billion on its risky investments in the second half of the year. Last month, UBS, Europe's worst casualty of the credit crisis, said writedowns climbed a further $5 billion in the second quarter to top $42 billion.

 

 

 


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Athugasemdir

1 Smámynd: Ásta

Góð samantekt. Skuldsett fyrirtæki stefna í hraðbyr í  vanda. þess vegna verður að draga úr áhættufíkn. Líka opinber hlutafélög svo sem orkufyrirtæki.

Ásta , 15.9.2008 kl. 10:04

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Ívar Pálsson
Ívar Pálsson

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